Key Updates
Trump's National Guard Gambit Ignites Constitutional Crisis
What began as protests and a federalism spat, which we flagged yesterday, has now metastasized into a full-blown constitutional crisis. The core of it is this: after a federal judge, Karin Immergut, blocked the Trump administration from deploying the Oregon National Guard to quell protests in Portland, the White House didn't challenge the ruling in court. Instead, they just routed around it.
In an unprecedented move, the administration has federalized and deployed the California National Guard to Oregon. This is the political equivalent of using your neighbor's credit card to pay for a security system they didn't want. Unsurprisingly, California Governor Gavin Newsom is having none of it and has already filed a lawsuit against the administration. Simultaneously, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker announced that 400 members of the Texas National Guard are being deployed to his state, Oregon, and other unspecified locations, completely against his wishes. We are now witnessing a president using the military forces of friendly states as a cudgel against states run by political opponents.
This is all happening against the backdrop of escalating street-level conflict. In Chicago, federal agents were reportedly rammed by vehicles, leading to one armed female suspect being shot. The most incendiary claim, however, is that the Chicago Police Department was ordered to "stand down" and not assist the federal agents under attack. While that's still being contested, the mere allegation speaks volumes about the level of breakdown between local and federal law enforcement. Director Kash Patel has vowed "justice," which suggests the Feds are preparing to go it alone, with or without local cooperation.
Analytical Take: This is no longer about managing protests. This is a stress test of the American federalist system. By deploying one state's Guard to another against the governors' wills, the administration is asserting a vision of presidential power that effectively erases state authority over their own forces once federalized. The legal questions are monumental, and the Supreme Court will almost certainly have to weigh in. The second-order effect is the potential for a crisis of command within the National Guard itself. Are these part-time soldiers loyal to their governor who nominally commands them, or the President who signs their federal paychecks? We are in uncharted waters. The chaos in Chicago and Portland is now both the justification for and the consequence of this power play.
Virginia Democrat's Violent Texts Create a Bind for His Party
Down in Virginia, the Attorney General race just got ugly. Democratic candidate Jay Jones is on the ropes after texts from 2022 were unearthed in which he expressed a desire to see a Republican politician, Todd Gilbert, get "two bullets to the head" and referred to his children as "little fascists." As we noted yesterday, the story was breaking; today, the political fallout is crystallizing.
Republicans, naturally, are demanding Jones withdraw. Donald Trump has even weighed in, calling for him to drop out. The most interesting development, however, is the carefully calibrated response from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger. She publicly denounced the "unacceptable" language but pointedly refused to call for Jones to quit the ticket. She claims to have had a "direct conversation" with him, which is political code for "I read him the riot act in private, but I'm not sinking my own campaign by publicly executing my running mate."
Analytical Take: Spanberger is in an impossible position, and her response is a masterclass in political risk management. Jettisoning Jones would be seen as a capitulation to the and would create chaos on her own ticket so close to the election. Keeping him, however, saddles her with some truly toxic baggage. She's making a calculated bet that voters will be more concerned with current issues than three-year-old texts, however vile. For the , this is a gift. It allows them to pivot from defending their own controversial figures and go on the offensive, painting the incident not as one man's ugly rant but as evidence of a broader rot in their opponents' rhetoric. This is now a powerful, visceral issue that will dominate Virginia's airwaves for the foreseeable future.
The Shutdown Grinds On, But All Eyes Are Elsewhere
The federal government shutdown is now in its second week, with no meaningful progress to report. The standoff remains centered on extending Affordable Care Act () subsidies, with Chuck Schumer and the Democrats refusing to pass a funding bill without them, and Mike Johnson and the House refusing to include them. Both sides are firmly dug in, issuing press releases that blame the other for hurting the military and federal workers.
The story here isn't what's happening, but what isn't. The gears of government are frozen. And while a shutdown is always significant, it has been completely overshadowed by the dramatic federal-state clashes in Chicago and Portland. The dysfunction in Congress has effectively taken the legislative branch off the field as a check on executive action.
Analytical Take: While the economic impact of the shutdown will continue to mount, its primary political significance has shifted. It's now the backdrop of institutional paralysis that enables the more acute crisis over domestic troop deployments. A Congress that can't agree to keep the lights on is certainly not going to muster the bipartisan will to formally challenge a president's assertion of new powers. In this context, the shutdown's legislative gridlock isn't a bug; it's a feature for an administration keen on testing the limits of its authority without Congressional interference.
Also Noteworthy
Vikings Snag a Win in London; Starting 's Shoulder Not So Lucky
Across the pond, the Minnesota Vikings secured a 21-17 victory over the Cleveland Browns in London. The game was decided in the final 30 seconds by a touchdown pass from quarterback Carson Wentz, who played through a left shoulder injury he sustained earlier in the game. While the win is a notch in the Vikings' belt, the real story is the status of Wentz's shoulder. An extended absence could significantly alter the trajectory of their season. The game also served as another successful marketing roadshow for the 's continued international expansion efforts. For the Browns, it was a showcase for rookie Dillon Gabriel in a tough loss.