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Trump's Power Plays, Ukraine Gambit, Epstein Files & NYC Mayoral Race

July 18, 2025

Table of Contents

Key Updates

Trump's Domestic Blitz: A Coordinated Push on the Fed, , and the Budget

The White House is executing a multi-front offensive to fundamentally reshape the federal government's priorities and personnel, with actions this week targeting the Federal Reserve, the Justice Department, and federal spending. President Trump has escalated his public war of words with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a "numbskull" and openly musing about firing him over interest rate policy and a pricey $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. While Trump later stated firing Powell is "highly unlikely"—likely a nod to the legal and market chaos it would unleash—the sustained pressure campaign is a clear attempt to erode the central bank's traditional independence.

This theme of remaking institutions extends to the Justice Department. The Senate Judiciary Committee advanced the contentious nominations of Emil Bove for the Third Circuit and Jeanine Pirro for D.C. US Attorney, prompting a Democratic walkout. Bove's nomination is especially fraught, shadowed by whistleblower allegations that he advocated for ignoring court orders on deportations. Simultaneously, the fired federal prosecutor Maurene Comey, daughter of the former director, a move widely seen as politically motivated retaliation. These actions, combined with the 's recommendation of a mere one-day sentence for Brett Hankison in the Breonna Taylor case, paint a picture of a Justice Department being molded to align with the administration's political agenda and priorities on law enforcement.

Rounding out the blitz, Congress passed the $9 billion rescissions package championed by Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (). The bill, which passed on party lines, slashes funding for foreign aid and domestic public broadcasting like and . This fulfills a long-standing conservative goal and sets a powerful precedent for using the rescissions process to bypass normal appropriations fights. Taken together, these are not isolated events; they are a coordinated, rapid-fire effort to assert executive control over the nation’s economic, legal, and fiscal levers.

Analytical Take: This isn't just noise; it's a systematic campaign. Trump is stress-testing the institutional guardrails of Washington. The pressure on the Fed is a classic Trump tactic: create a public foil to blame for any economic headwinds while simultaneously trying to bully them into policy concessions. The moves are more direct, aiming to install loyalists and purge perceived adversaries, which has profound implications for the rule of law. The budget cuts are both ideological and tactical, starving programs the administration opposes while using a procedural tool that had been dormant for decades. The second-order effect is a significant chilling effect across the federal bureaucracy, where officials will now weigh career risk against institutional norms.

The Ukraine Gambit: Trump's High-Stakes Play with Sanctions and Drones

As reported yesterday, President Trump issued an ultimatum to Russia for a peace deal. We now have the mechanics of his strategy: a threat of secondary sanctions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil, chief among them China and India. Trump has given Vladimir Putin a 50-day deadline to agree to peace talks before these punishing economic measures would kick in. This is a significant escalation that puts major global economies in the crosshairs and threatens to roil energy markets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly welcomed the renewed US pressure but is understandably wary, questioning both the short deadline and the reliability of Putin as a negotiating partner. To sweeten the pot and address US concerns about its own drone capabilities, a potential "mega deal" is being discussed. This would involve the US acquiring advanced Ukrainian drone technology in exchange for providing Kyiv with more sophisticated American weaponry. This move could reshape the technological battlefield while also quieting domestic critics of US military readiness. Meanwhile, as NATO support for Ukraine continues, Russia has responded with its own bluster, threatening preemptive strikes against the West, a familiar tactic to sow division and fear.

Analytical Take: Trump is attempting a high-risk, high-reward gambit. The secondary sanctions threat is a powerful economic weapon, but deploying it against China and India could backfire spectacularly, potentially driving them closer to Russia and triggering a trade war that dwarfs previous spats. The 50-day deadline feels arbitrary and designed for headlines, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to accept a potentially unfavorable deal. The drone technology deal is the most interesting wrinkle; it's a pragmatic move that allows the administration to frame its support for Ukraine as a direct benefit to US military power, a narrative that plays well with Trump's "America First" base. The real question is whether this is a genuine strategy for peace or a strategy to declare "mission accomplished" and disengage, regardless of the long-term consequences for Ukraine's sovereignty.

Federal Power Play: Trump Targets Blue States on Immigration and Green Energy

The administration is escalating its confrontations with states led by Democrats, opening up new fronts on immigration and energy policy. The Department of Justice has formally requested that all California counties provide lists of non-citizen inmates in their jails, a direct challenge to the state's sanctuary policies. In a more covert but equally significant move, has secured access to Medicaid enrollee data through an agreement with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (). This gives federal immigration enforcement a powerful new tool to identify and locate undocumented immigrants, using the healthcare system as a data mine.

Simultaneously, the White House is systematically dismantling federal support for renewable energy, a policy that disproportionately affects states like California and New York. Citing costs, reliability issues, and dependence on foreign supply chains (ahem, China), the administration has terminated federal funding for California's high-speed rail project and prompted New York to halt the approval process for major offshore wind power transmission lines. This was followed by the Department of the Interior announcing "enhanced oversight" of all wind and solar projects.

Analytical Take: This is a coordinated assertion of federal power aimed squarely at blue states that have resisted the administration's agenda. The immigration data grabs are a clear attempt to bypass and undermine sanctuary city laws from the top down, raising immediate privacy and civil rights concerns. The war on green energy is both ideological and punitive. By cutting off funds and creating regulatory hurdles, the White House can stymie the signature policy goals of governors like Gavin Newsom and Kathy Hochul, forcing them to either abandon projects or fund them entirely with state money. This isn't just policy disagreement; it's hardball politics designed to make blue states pay a price for their opposition.

The Epstein Files: A Birthday Note and a Desperate Gambit for Transparency

The controversy over the Jeffrey Epstein files, which yesterday was fueling a "MAGA civil war," has intensified dramatically. Reports have surfaced of a 2003 birthday note allegedly signed by Donald Trump to Epstein, a tangible piece of evidence that further cements their past social connection. This comes as the administration faces bipartisan pressure for full transparency, with critics accusing them of a cover-up.

In a move that appears aimed at seizing control of the narrative, Trump has directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to release "pertinent grand jury testimony" related to the case, subject to court approval. This is a clever political maneuver. It allows the White House to appear transparent while placing the onus on the courts, which are typically reluctant to unseal grand jury proceedings. This follows a confusing series of events where Bondi alluded to having a client list before the officially declared no such list exists, fueling further suspicion.

Analytical Take: Trump is in a political vise and is trying to wriggle free. The birthday note, whether authentic or not, is toxic because it provides a physical artifact of a relationship he has tried to downplay. His directive to release grand jury testimony is a classic Trumpian move: a grand gesture of transparency that is unlikely to result in immediate action. He gets to claim he's for openness, while the judicial process will likely drag on for months, if not years. This is less about revealing the truth and more about managing a political crisis. He's trying to get ahead of the story and paint his Democratic critics as hypocrites, but the core problem—his documented association with Epstein—remains.

NYC's Mayoral Meltdown: Socialism, Public Safety, and a Looming Political Brawl

The New York City mayoral race is rapidly devolving from establishment panic into a full-blown ideological war. Democratic primary winner Zohran Mamdani is being hammered by opponents after a video resurfaced in which he discusses the "abolition of private property." This, combined with his initial reluctance to condemn the phrase "globalize the intifada" (which we covered yesterday), has provided a mountain of ammunition for his rivals.

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, now running as an independent, is seizing on the issue, framing Mamdani as a radical threat to public safety and economic stability. Adams has already locked up endorsements from law enforcement unions, and reports indicate the city's business community is deeply unsettled by the prospect of a Mamdani mayoralty. The race is further complicated by the presence of another independent, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, creating a chaotic three-way contest.

Analytical Take: This is a perfect storm for New York politics. Mamdani's past statements, whether youthful idealism or core belief, are a political gift to his opponents in a city where real estate and finance are king. Adams is smartly pivoting to the center, positioning himself as the only adult in the room who can guarantee safety and economic continuity. The "socialist" and "communist" labels are being used to activate moderate and conservative voters and peel away anxious Democrats. This race is no longer just about policy; it's a referendum on the city's identity and a test of whether a deeply progressive candidate can win a general election in a city that is more economically moderate than its primary electorate suggests. Expect this to get much uglier.

Crypto Gets Its Rulebook (Sort Of)

In a landmark moment for the digital asset industry, the House passed the Act, a comprehensive bill to regulate stablecoins. The legislation, which creates the first major regulatory framework for the $238 billion market, now heads to President Trump's desk, where he is expected to sign it. The bill's passage was a political drama in itself, requiring Trump's personal intervention to quell a revolt from a dozen conservative Republicans.

The holdouts were concerned that the bill didn't do enough to ban a potential central bank digital currency (), which they view as a tool for government surveillance. A deal was struck to attach a separate anti- bill to the must-pass annual defense authorization, clearing the way for the Act to pass with a strong bipartisan vote of 308-122.

Analytical Take: The passage of the Act is a massive step in the maturation of the crypto industry. For years, the sector has been begging for regulatory clarity, and this bill provides it for a crucial corner of the market. The political maneuvering is just as significant. It shows that crypto is now a serious political issue with dedicated lobbying power and factions within both parties. Trump's strong support signals the sees the crypto community as a key constituency. The compromise—tying the ban to the defense bill—is a classic piece of legislative sausage-making, but it got the job done. The long-term effect will likely be increased institutional investment in stablecoins, now that there are clear rules of the road.

Gaza's Cauldron: A Papal Condemnation and Deepening US Political Rifts

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains a volatile flashpoint, with a significant new development drawing international condemnation. Pope Leo XIV has called for a ceasefire after an apparent Israeli strike hit Gaza's only Catholic church. This brings a powerful global moral authority into the conflict, putting further pressure on Israel's conduct of the war.

Domestically, the conflict continues to cleave the Democratic party. The North Carolina Democratic Party passed a resolution accusing Israel of genocide, a move that reflects the growing anger of the progressive base. This internal division is happening as a new study alleges that major US news outlets have amplified Hamas narratives, complicating the aid efforts of the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (). On a related front, the House has introduced a bipartisan resolution, which we noted yesterday, to condemn the phrase "Globalize the Intifada," directly targeting the rhetoric that is splitting the left.

Analytical Take: The Pope's condemnation is a significant blow to Israel's international standing and will amplify calls for restraint from European allies. For the US, the political fallout is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. The NC Democratic resolution is a sign that the party's leadership is losing its grip on the narrative at the state level. This internal strife is a major headache for Democrats heading into any election cycle. The debate over media narratives and slogans like "Globalize the Intifada" shows that this is not just a foreign policy issue; it's a deeply divisive culture war being fought on American soil, with the conflict in Gaza serving as the catalyst.

The Weaponization of Everything: Probes Target Biden's Past

The political wars are increasingly being fought through congressional investigations and legal challenges. The House Oversight Committee is escalating its probe into former President Joe Biden, focusing on allegations of a cover-up regarding his mental acuity during his term. The committee has scheduled transcribed interviews with former top aides, including Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, specifically questioning the use of an autopen to sign official documents, including pardons.

Separately, Senator Ron Johnson is demanding the National Archives turn over all records related to Biden's physical and mental health. Republicans are building a case that key decisions may have been made without Biden's full knowledge or consent, a charge with profound constitutional implications.

Analytical Take: This is the political inverse of the investigations that plagued the Trump administration. The is using its congressional power to scrutinize every aspect of the previous administration, aiming to undermine Biden's legacy and create a narrative of a presidency run by unelected aides. The focus on the autopen is a clever legal hook to pry open the inner workings of the Biden White House. While the use of an autopen by presidents is not unprecedented, tying it to questions of mental fitness is a potent political attack. This strategy serves two purposes: it keeps a key political rival on the defensive and provides a constant stream of headlines for conservative media, ensuring the base remains energized by perceived malfeasance. This is the new normal: investigations as a permanent form of political combat.

Noteworthy Items

Nationwide "Good Trouble" Protests Mark Anniversary of John Lewis's Death

On the fifth anniversary of his death, activists across all 50 states held protests inspired by Congressman John Lewis's call to make "good trouble." Demonstrations in over 1,500 locations targeted the Trump administration's policies on immigration, social programs, and civil rights. While the protests were widespread, their immediate impact on policy is likely minimal. Their true significance lies in demonstrating the continued energy and organization of the opposition and underscoring the deep, persistent political divisions in the country.

TSA Hints at Scrapping the Dreaded 3.4oz Liquid Rule

Travelers may soon be able to leave their full-sized shampoo bottles in their carry-ons. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem indicated that the is actively evaluating the 3.4 oz liquid rule, a post-9/11 security staple since a foiled 2006 terror plot. Citing advancements in new scanner technology being rolled out at airports, the potential change follows the recent elimination of the shoe removal requirement. This is part of a broader effort to streamline security ahead of major events like the America250 celebrations and the World Cup. Don't throw out your travel-sized toiletries just yet, but a major travel headache may soon be a thing of the past.

Tragedy in the Community: Super Bowl Champion Bryan Braman Dies at 38

Former linebacker Bryan Braman, who won a Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018, has passed away at the age of 38 after a battle with a rare form of cancer. Tributes have poured in from former teammates and organizations, including a notable donation from J.J. Watt to his GoFundMe. It’s a sad reminder of how fragile life is, even for those who seem invincible on the field.

The "Kiss Cam" Affair: Tech and HR Chief Caught in the Spotlight

In a very modern corporate scandal, Andy Byron, the of tech firm Astronomer, and his Chief People Officer, Kristin Cabot, are facing an HR nightmare of their own. The two were caught on the "kiss cam" at a Coldplay concert, and the footage promptly went viral on TikTok, fueled by allegations of an affair. The incident raises obvious questions about workplace ethics and the perils of public life in the social media age. So far, the company and the executives are silent, but the reputational damage is already done.

Encino Murders Update: Suspect's Mental Health History Under Scrutiny

As reported yesterday, 'American Idol' executive Robin Kaye and her husband were murdered in their Encino home. New details have emerged about the suspect, Raymond Boodarian. The case is now raising serious questions about California's mental health diversion programs, as it's been revealed that Boodarian had prior arrests and was released from custody months before the murders after being declared mentally incompetent. This tragic case is becoming a flashpoint in the debate over criminal justice reform and how the system handles individuals who are both a danger to the public and mentally ill.

Trump's Power Plays, Ukraine Gambit, Epstein Files & NYC Mayoral Race | The Updates