← Back to all briefings

Minneapolis Crisis, Greenland Trade War, Virginia Gerrymander & Iran Tensions

January 18, 2026

Table of Contents

Key Updates

Minneapolis on the Brink of Federal Intervention

The situation in Minneapolis has escalated dramatically, moving from local unrest to the verge of a constitutional crisis. Following yesterday's threat from President Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act, the Pentagon has now ordered 1,500 soldiers to prepare for a possible deployment to Minnesota. This is no longer just rhetoric; the military apparatus is being primed for domestic use. This move is the culmination of two distinct but now intertwined streams of conflict that have turned the city into a national flashpoint.

The initial catalyst was the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good by an agent on January 7 during "Operation Metro Surge." This sparked ongoing protests against federal immigration enforcement, which have been met with a Department of Justice investigation into Governor Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey for allegedly obstructing operations. This created a tense standoff between federal and state authorities. Then, yesterday, a "March Against Fraud" led by Jake Lang, a pardoned January 6 rioter, collided with counter-protesters. Lang claims he was stabbed in the ensuing melee, an event that provided the perfect pretext for federal escalation.

We now have a feedback loop of outrage. One side is protesting federal overreach and a controversial killing by , while the other is protesting what they see as election fraud and lax immigration, leading to street violence. The administration is seizing on the latter to justify a potential military deployment that would inevitably be used to quell both sets of protests and enforce federal authority. A federal judge's ruling to restrict agents' actions against peaceful protesters now seems like a quaint legal footnote in the face of potential military force.

The deployment of the Minnesota National Guard has clearly been deemed insufficient by the White House. The probe and the Insurrection Act threat are a one-two punch designed to break the will of state and local officials who are seen as defiant. The core issue is no longer just immigration or protest rights; it's a raw power struggle over jurisdiction and the use of force on American soil. The situation is exceptionally volatile, and the introduction of active-duty soldiers into Minneapolis would be an unpredictable and historically grave development.

Trump's Greenland Gambit Becomes a Transatlantic Trade War

President Trump's long-running desire to acquire Greenland has morphed from a geopolitical curiosity into a full-blown economic conflict with our European allies. In a significant escalation, the administration has announced it will impose tariffs on several European nations to force Denmark to the negotiating table. The tariffs are set to begin on February 1 and will jump to 25% by June 1 if a deal isn't reached. This is the weaponization of trade policy to compel a territorial sale, a move that is both audacious and deeply destabilizing to the post- international order.

Predictably, this has been met with condemnation from European leaders and protests by Greenlanders themselves, who are asserting their right to self-determination and have no interest in being traded like a commodity. The absurdity of the situation is highlighted by the fact that a bipartisan US congressional delegation had to visit Denmark to reaffirm America's commitment to its ally, essentially performing diplomatic damage control against their own president.

This isn't just a vanity project. The strategic value of Greenland is immense, offering dominance over Arctic sea lanes and access to vast mineral resources, all while serving as a critical buffer against Russian and Chinese ambitions in the region. The administration sees this as a transactional shortcut to securing that strategic advantage. However, the method—coercive tariffs against allies—risks poisoning the well for years to come. It tells our partners that alliance is conditional and that US economic power can be turned against them at any moment for objectives unrelated to mutual defense. The will be forced to retaliate, and this Greenland-centric trade skirmish could easily spiral into a much wider, more damaging conflict.

The Great Gerrymander of Virginia and the 2026 Power Play

While federal troops prepare for Minneapolis, a quieter but profoundly important battle is being won in Virginia. State Democrats have successfully passed a constitutional amendment through both their House and Senate that will allow the legislature to redraw the state's congressional maps. The measure now goes to the voters this spring. If it passes, and it likely will in a state trending blue, Democrats plan to carve out up to four new, safely left-leaning seats just in time for the 2026 midterm elections.

This is a masterclass in partisan hardball. With Republicans clinging to a razor-thin House majority, flipping four seats in one state could single-handedly determine control of Congress. This move is, of course, being decried by Republicans as blatant gerrymandering, which is precisely what it is. The irony is thick, as this comes after years of Democrats railing against Republican gerrymandering and Trump himself pushing -led states to engage in similar mid-decade redistricting. It seems the lesson learned wasn't that gerrymandering is bad for democracy, but that you have to be the one holding the pen.

The national implications are huge. The fight for control of the House isn't just about winning swing districts anymore; it's about eliminating them. All eyes will also be on the Supreme Court, which is set to rule on Louisiana v. Callais, another case that could reshape the rules of redistricting nationwide. The Virginia gambit is a reminder that the most consequential political battles are often fought not in presidential elections, but in the drab, procedural world of state legislatures and map-making committees.

US-Iran Rhetorical Hostilities Hit a Dangerously Personal Level

As anti-government protests continue across Iran, the war of words between Washington and Tehran has escalated from policy disagreements to direct, personal insults. Yesterday, Supreme Leader Khamenei labeled President Trump a "criminal" and blamed him for the unrest. Trump fired back, calling for "new leadership in Iran" and describing the Ayatollah as "sick."

This kind of language matters. It pushes both leaders into a corner, making any form of de-escalation or back-channel communication nearly impossible without one side losing face. For Trump, it's a low-cost way to appear tough and supportive of the protesters, a stance even earning praise from figures like Jeb Bush. For Khamenei, it's a way to rally his base by framing the domestic uprising as a foreign plot orchestrated by a villainous American president.

The danger is that this rhetorical firestorm leaves little room for diplomacy. With the Iranian regime continuing its violent crackdown and internet blackouts, the pressure on the Trump administration to do something will grow. The White House's hints at intervention, combined with this highly personalized animosity, create a volatile mix. While the US may believe it's supporting a popular uprising, its loud and aggressive posture also gives the Iranian regime the perfect scapegoat, allowing them to paint every protester as a pawn of the "Great Satan" and justify even harsher repression.

Urban America's Unending Debate: Policing, Crime, and Justice

A trio of stories from New York and Los Angeles provides a perfect snapshot of the intractable tensions governing America's largest cities. In the subway system, gun seizures have skyrocketed 148% since 2021, a statistic the attributes to increased police presence but which critics suggest points to a belief among criminals that there are few consequences for carrying illegal weapons. It’s a classic "more policing" vs. "ineffective policing" debate playing out underground.

Meanwhile, above ground, the NYC Commission on Racial Equity is moving forward with a reparations study, allocating funds to community groups to explore the concept. This has drawn immediate fire from some city council members, highlighting the deep political and social divisions over how to address historical injustices. And on the West Coast, a federal judge has infuriated the 's police union by banning the use of 40mm "less-lethal" launchers for crowd control, a direct response to their use in past protests. The union sees it as taking away a vital tool; activists see it as a necessary check on excessive force.

Taken together, these aren't separate issues. They are three fronts in the same war over the role of police, the nature of public safety, and the path to social justice in urban America. Each city is a laboratory, but the experiments are proving volatile and the results are satisfying almost no one.

NFL Playoff Picture Shaped by Injury and Controversy

The and Championship matchups are taking shape after a dramatic Saturday of playoff football. In a stunning upset, the Seattle Seahawks absolutely dismantled the San Francisco 49ers 41-6. Quarterback Sam Darnold, whose status was questionable all week with an oblique injury, played and led the rout, while running back Kenneth Walker III pounded in three touchdowns.

The real drama, however, was in the . The Denver Broncos edged the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in a wild overtime game, but the victory was costly and controversial. The game-deciding play was a questionable overtime interception thrown by Bills Josh Allen, a call that will be debated all week. More importantly for Denver, their rookie quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle fracture. While the Broncos advance to the Championship, they'll have to face either the Patriots or the Texans with backup Jarrett Stidham under center, a devastating blow to their Super Bowl aspirations.

A Small Clue in the Charlie Kirk Assassination

A minor but potentially significant development has emerged in the investigation into the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Lance Twiggs, the romantic partner of the accused assassin Tyler Robinson, has had his FBI protection removed. As reported previously, Twiggs was placed under protection shortly after the September shooting.

The removal of his security detail could imply several things. The optimistic view is that the immediate threat to his life has passed. A more cynical interpretation is that he is no longer considered a cooperative or useful witness, or perhaps the has already extracted all the information he has to offer. It's a subtle shift, but it points to a new phase in the investigation as prosecutors build their case against Robinson. The core questions about motive and whether Robinson acted alone remain unanswered, but Twiggs's changing status is a thread worth pulling.

Noteworthy & Brief

FBI Nabs 'Ten Most Wanted' Fugitive in Mexico

After nearly a decade on the run, Alejandro Rosales Castillo, one of the FBI's 'Ten Most Wanted' fugitives, has been captured in Mexico. He was wanted for the 2016 murder of his co-worker in Charlotte, North Carolina. His capture is a significant win for the and CMPD, demonstrating the long arm of the law and the effectiveness of international cooperation. He now awaits extradition to face justice.

Tragedies Highlight Vulnerability

Two unrelated but deeply tragic events serve as somber reminders of life's fragility. In Brooklyn, former Nickelodeon child star Kianna Underwood, 33, was killed in a hit-and-run. Reports indicate she had been struggling with homelessness, sparking a conversation about the entertainment industry's responsibilities to its former young talent. In Lakewood, California, a domestic violence incident ended in a murder-suicide, with Hector Lionel Alfaro killing his wife and daughter before taking his own life in front of his other daughter, leaving a family and community devastated.

Minneapolis Crisis, Greenland Trade War, Virginia Gerrymander & Iran Tensions | The Updates